Anyways, spending most of the day messing around with SourceForge.net I finally was able to upload the program.

The zip file includes the actual program and source code (just in case anyone wants to improve on it or comment on my ugly programing). Currently it is rather limited, but I wanted to release something just in case it might come in handy for someone going to Gen Con.

https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Quick note, depending on your computer speed the time it takes to run all the simulations will vary. Generally anywhere between 10000 to 100000 is a good number.

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

2144941:

I don't think its cheating in any way.  But I don't want anyone to use or see such a program because that will make them more informed and thus harder for me to defeat.

I said this before and this is the last time I'll mention this program, but google "smallroller.exe"  Play with it some and you'll see it does 90% of the things we need/want it to do.

Psychic Scream uses 7 dice.

I wouldn't mind seeing that code at some point, Imackid, but only because I'm trying to slowly teach myself some programming skills.

Becuase I don't know what system you're on, i'll just give you the .cpp file. If you're on a Windows box, google and download "visual C++" it's free. Just copy and paste my file into the "main" file and run. If you're on a mac, just use xcode's "C++ Command Line Tool" project and copy/paste from there.

Also, I won't take credit for all of this, my instructor (i'm at a programming camp) did much of the figuring for the math and some of the programming. I'm still working on it so eventually you should be able to plug in the amt. of ATK dice and armor/resist dice and it will give you the % chance of dealing x damage. (It's pretty complex)

Here's the file so far:
http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/47829/main.cpp
I'll be taking this down in the next few days...

1293043:

Using Hammer of Naaru (4 attack against 3 defense, on crit 4 magic against 1 resist)

0 Damage 32%
1 Damage 24%
2 Damage 20%
3 Damage 12%
4 Damage 7%
5 Damage 4%
6 Damage 1%

Using Hammer of Wrath (5 magic against 1 resist, on crit damage +1, stats based on comic con demo report by Corle http://entertainment.upperdeck.com/WOW/COMMUNITY/forums/thread/1323113.aspx)

0 Damage 2%
1 Damage 8%
2 Damage 20%
3 Damage 28%
4 Damage 26%
5 Damage 13%
6 Damage 3%

Just in case you're wondering how these compare to the actual probabilities:

Using Hammer of Naaru vs. Gorebelly:
0 Damage 32.0%
1 Damage 22.9%
2 Damage 18.4%
3 Damage 12.7%
4 Damage 8.1%
5 Damage 4.2%
6 Damage 1.4%
7 Damage 0.3%
8 Damage 0.02%

Using Hammer of Wrath vs. Gorebelly:
0 Damage 1.9%
1 Damage 7.8%
2 Damage 19.1%
3 Damage 28.5%
4 Damage 26.3%
5 Damage 13.6%
6 Damage 2.7%

Running the numbers again with a slightly improved version of my program, my numbers for Hammer of Naaru is different from  daedalus25's. Hammer of Wrath matches up real close. Here's the data.

Hammer of Naaru Vs Gorebelly:

Daedalus25's numbers, then my numbers

0 Damage 32.0%  32.373%
1 Damage 22.9%  23.591%
2 Damage 18.4%  19.296%
3 Damage 12.7%  12.488%
4 Damage 8.1%    6.826%
5 Damage 4.2%    3.457%
6 Damage 1.4%    1.436%
7 Damage 0.3%    0.468%
8 Damage 0.02%  0.065%

I'm unsure of what is causing this difference, could be my program or a mistaken variable in either one of our solving methods. I think that the difference on 1, 2, 4, 5 damage is unacceptable, I need to overlook my code again. I'm worried about how I handle on crit extra attacks now.

As for the Hammer of Wrath:

0 Damage 1.9%     1.925%
1 Damage 7.8%     7.74%
2 Damage 19.1%   19.077%
3 Damage 28.5%   28.493%
4 Damage 26.3%   26.441%
5 Damage 13.6%   13.597%
6 Damage 2.7%     2.727%

That is running 100,000 outcome simulations, % error is about .2 %. I don't really see a need for it to be so accurate from a practical perspective.

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

I'm not sure what kind of error should be expected after a given number of samples, but 4 and 5 in particular do appear to be a bit too off.  The fact that Hammer of Wrath is pretty accurate, tells me that my pre-crit success table is correct.  I'll double check my crit damage calculation table from Hammer of Naaru to make sure I didn't make a mistake there.  If either of us made a mistake, I'm certain that's where it'd be found.

1278800:

Somebody say "you're probabily right"

Seriously

please

ur probably right???

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I serve no man. I kill he who wishes me to serve him.

level 24 blood elf warlock: raktos: demon soul

by way im sauronspawns brother

2189247:

.

what the heck is this???

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I serve no man. I kill he who wishes me to serve him.

level 24 blood elf warlock: raktos: demon soul

by way im sauronspawns brother

941728:

I'm not sure what kind of error should be expected after a given number of samples, but 4 and 5 in particular do appear to be a bit too off.  The fact that Hammer of Wrath is pretty accurate, tells me that my pre-crit success table is correct.  I'll double check my crit damage calculation table from Hammer of Naaru to make sure I didn't make a mistake there.  If either of us made a mistake, I'm certain that's where it'd be found.

I don't think less than 1% error means there would be an error in either programs. When a computer generates random numbers, it is to be expected that the results wont be exactly what we are waiting for. This is what random is all about. The computer can have a hot/cold streak for certain numbers at any time, and that would completely put the results off of the "expected average".  And since 4/5/+ damage is greatly dependeant on Crits (10s), I would say the probability of getting hot/cold streak for certain numbers is increased.

If you ask me, iamtienpham should run his program again and again, and then average his results. Increasing his sample will lead to results that have a greater probability of matching the expected average.

I'm not saying an error is impossible, just that it's possible neither have an error.

My 2 cents...

By the laws of large numbers, the problem of hot/cold streaks disappears. And I think 100,000 total outcomes simulated is more than enough, but I ran it at 1,000,000 times and the answer comes to about the same as that of the 100,000 times one.

I went back and closely looked though my "on crit" check, and did find the problem. It was my mistake (for any programming geeks out there, I was checking the wrong defense roll against the extra attack damage). Fixed it and the new numbers are much more in line with daedalus25's. Thank you for the help.

New numbers here:

0        32.114%   
1       22.876%   
2      18.273%   
3      12.77%   
4       8.003%  
5       4.238%   
6        1.426% 
7        0.273%   
8        0.027%   

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

With the release of the rule book I think I got the program up and running to do a single re-roll for terrian bonuses. Anyways, here's my attempt at release notes.

Version: Alpha2 (08/07/08)

-Fixed On Crit Extra Attack and Defense Rolls (Thanks to daedalus25)
-Labeling On Crit Extra Attack and Defense
-Changed Damage +1 to Damage +X with a default of +1
-Added display to show Crit Chance, Mean Damage, Median Damage of an individual attack
-Added Terrain Effects of 1 die re-roll per attack and 1 die re-roll per defense
-Data chart now lists data in an easy way to copy and paste in to a spread sheet for possible graphing
-Default number of Simulations to run is now 100,000
-Layout Changed
-Future Problems: Window space is quickly disappearing, current limit of 15 damage,

Download it here:

https://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=236120&package_id=286803&release_id=618559

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Nice job.

I think you might have confused median (the number at the 50th percentile) with mode (the most common number).

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A Mini Journey

In honour of the application's first download, I'll do a stat of the day ;)

P(3 Drake Talon Cleaver attacks KO Hodoon): 25.6%
P(3 Hammer of the Naaru attacks KO Gorebelly): 10.2%

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A Mini Journey

About the sourceforge download count... it doesn't seem to be working right. It's a bummer, but oh wells.

Anyways, yeah I did mix up Mode and Median. I need to fix that (just re-label them I guess), but I don't think I'll be updating it until sometime after gencon. I'm hoping for more game mechanics to be revealed so I can make the program simulate more cases.

Possibilities include:
Multiple Dice ReRolls
Special Attacks that require a separate defense roll not dependent on character's defense values
On crit extra attacks that add on to the main attack, not a new attack (like "on crit" roll X more attack die)
On crit effects needing more than one crit rolled (like 2 crits rolled then X effect)

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Download Link: https://sourceforge.net/project/showfiles.php?group_id=236120

Huge thanks to all those spoilers from GenCon, and just as much thanks to the non-attending community sharing any information. Here's a crappy release note...

Version: Alpha3 (08/19/08) -thanks to all those who posted spoilers from GenCon

-Changed window size to 1024 by 768 not including borders
-Layout changed
-"Damage Median" now correctly renamed to "Damage Mode" (Thanks to trist1)
-Added "To Hit X+" to allow for simulation of attacks under the effects of Trueshot Aura (affects all rolls under the attack)
-Added "If dealt (damage), Damage +X" to allow simulation of attack and extra attacks with the possible effects of Hemorrhage
-Added option to allow for multiple re-rolls (currently I think only attack re-rolls are able to go above 1)
-Changed the window icon to scale properly
-In process of putting together a modified version of this program focused on speeding through rolls during actual playtesting


The last bit of info needs a bit of explaining. Currently the program is purposed for running huge number of rolls to statistically give a rough percentage chance of damage outcomes. It is not very good at providing information about a single attack and defense roll. I plan on modifying it and release an entirely separate program to allow for it. The idea is that you input needed information, press a button, and you instantly know how much damage to put on the mini and if you rolled a crit or not. Instead of potentially rolling 2-4 handful of dice, you can just press a button. So for those of you who plan on doing actual playtesting for tournaments or just for fun, I hope that this will save you time. I hope you'll look forward to it.


Random Stats of the Post:
Chances of Leeroy Jenkins one-shoting 5 health clothy (1 armor) without yelling: 20.653%
With yelling the battle cry: 42.758%

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Good job Tien

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A Mini Journey