Do you think you could add a re-roll capability to the "on crit" section?  Specifically I'm looking at Elendril on a hill with hunters mark (2 re-rolls), his crit gets an extra 3 dice attack (which also gets the 2 dice re-roll).  BTW I just downloaded this program today and its a pretty spiffy little job, thanks.

Currently the re-rolls are set to effect both the regular attack and the extra attacks "on-crit". It's not easily shown on the interface , but it in the code it how it works more or less. There still is a problem with the extra attacks at the moment, it isn't affected by the true shot aura yet. So whatever numbers you are getting right now, it's a bit on the low side. I would likely get a another version of the problem out sometime this week hopefully.

I also need to put together a nice FAQ sometime for it, but I've been busy.

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Download link: https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Relatively a very small update. I think I'm getting close to where it's able to do almost what I want it to do. With most of the core set being spoiled, I think I kept informed and have had most of it modeled in the program. One thing I am missing is "on crit" put a -1 armor counter, but I'm rather lazy about that one so it's placed on in the way back on the things to do list.

Anyways release notes:

Version: Alpha4 (09/04/08)

-Corrected "to hit" dice rolls on extra attacks (Thanks to TehHuntre)
-Added "To Crit" variable to account for crit on X+ (Currently only Timmo Shadestep has this)

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

1293043:

By the laws of large numbers, the problem of hot/cold streaks disappears.

Probabilty theory includes a concept termed a "random walk". which says exactly the opposite. i.e. with any large random distribution the hot/cold streaks not only do not disappear. You can actually predict the expected length of such "streaks". And the expected maximum legth increases, the more times you roll.

This is such an awesome tool, thank you for putting in the time and effort.

Have you considered uploading this to the Wowminismods site?

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Im a moonkin.

I wouldn't mind having it up for a site like wowminismods, but I think that it would be better to wait until I get a good part of the core set rules and mechainics in to the program and check it. Right now there's just too many unknowns, and I'm not quite happy with the layout among other things (that's why I list them in the alpha stages of development, not even beta).

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

Probabilty theory includes a concept termed a "random walk". which says exactly the opposite. i.e. with any large random distribution the hot/cold streaks not only do not disappear. You can actually predict the expected length of such "streaks". And the expected maximum legth increases, the more times you roll.

Yup, but it ain't a problem.

---

A Mini Journey

1293043:

Download link: https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

-Added "To Crit" variable to account for crit on X+ (Currently only Timmo Shadestep has this)

 

Savin, too, no?

Also, unless you have it already, you might want to add crits that auto deal a point of damage. IE. a point that can't be defended--like boris & loth's crits. That would help to figure out exact chances of killing a character or not.

Also, you'd have to make that an X as well, as Varimathas deals 2 auto.

-c

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Darkmoon Faire Anaheim Champion '08

Download Link: https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

So I finally got around to updating it, I getting rather happy with the layout and where it is headed. I can't wait for the game to come out and to better adapt the program for player's needs. Anyways here are the release notes:

Version: Alpha5 (09/19/08)

-Changed the layout for ease of use
-Made the "Result Text" button bring up a window to copy and paste data
-Added the ability to simulate a single attack in each attack box
    (this is suppose to help with actual playtesting, press the button, put the damage down, and continue playing)
-Added On Crit deal "X Unpreventable Damage"
-NOTE: currently for "On Crit" effects only one can be active at a time

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WoW Minis Unofficial Calculator: In Alpha Stages

Download Link:
https://sourceforge.net/projects/wowminiscalcula/

You guys went all out Kudos to you.

As a former Heroclix player I would like to add this. In one game I rolled 6 snake eyes in a row. What are the odds of that? I wouldn't stress the math THAT much, it comes down to rolls, just like any other game, and just like any other dice rolls ... it is random.

Snuf

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FOR THE HORDE!

Heroclix uses D6 right?  That being the case the chance of rolling 6 1s is less than .01% (1/46656).  There is a small free program out ther called SmallRoller that is great for determining odds.  It isn't applicable to wowminis as the one that is being made here, but its still a great little program.

Somewhere earlier in the thread someone mentioned how calculating the actual probability was harder then generating a lot of outcomes and tracking the number of successes vs failures.  Well the little stats nerd inside me cringed, and he had a word with the giant programming nerd inside me, and together they cooked up the following.  Its a little bit harder to follow logically due to the recursion, but once you get used to writing stuff like this, stats programming becomes fun and easy :)

# ATT_FAIL = the number of times an attack dice fails out of 10
# ATT_SUCCESS = the number of times an attack dice succeeds out of 10
# DEF_FAIL = the number of times a defense dice fails out of 10
# DEF_SUCCESS = the number of times a defense dice succeeds out of 10
$ATT_FAIL = 3;
$ATT_SUCCESS = 10-$ATT_FAIL;
$DEF_FAIL = 3;
$DEF_SUCCESS = 10-$DEF_FAIL;

#MAIN
{
  # Usage
  # <name>.pl NumberOfAttackDice NumberOfDefDice TargetDamage
  print calcDamageChance($ARGV[0], $ARGV[1], $ARGV[2]);

}

sub calcDamageChance($$$)
{
    my ($NUM_ATT, $NUM_DEF, $DAMAGE) = @_;
    return recursiveCalc($NUM_ATT, $NUM_DEF, 0,0,$DAMAGE) /
            (10**($NUM_ATT+$NUM_DEF));
}

# NAD = Number of Attack Dice
# NDD = Number of Def Dice
# NAS = Number of current attack successes
# NDS = Number of current def successes
# DT = Damage Threshold
sub recursiveCalc($$$$$)
{
    my ($NAD, $NDD, $NAS, $NDS, $DT) = @_;

    if ( $NAD > 0)
    {
        return recursiveCalc($NAD-1, $NDD, $NAS, $NDS, $DT)*$ATT_FAIL+
             recursiveCalc($NAD-1, $NDD, $NAS+1, $NDS, $DT)*$ATT_SUCCESS;
    }
    elsif ( $NDD > 0)
    {
        return recursiveCalc($NAD, $NDD-1, $NAS, $NDS, $DT)*$DEF_FAIL+
            recursiveCalc($NAD, $NDD-1, $NAS, $NDS+1, $DT)*$DEF_SUCCESS;
    }
    elsif( ($NAS - $NDS) >= $DT)
    {
        return 1;
    }
    return 0;
}